Document Details

Document Type : Thesis 
Document Title :
Assessment of CMIP5 Multi-Model Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula
تقييم نتائج النموذج المتعدد CMIP5 لدرجة الحرارة والمطر الموسمى على الجزيرة العربية
 
Subject : Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture 
Document Language : Arabic 
Abstract : This study carries information about the temperature, precipitation and geopotential height future changes over Arabian Peninsula and the uncertainties within the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model data set. The CMIP5 models validate with respect to the observed Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data set for the temperature and precipitation. On the basis of validation criteria, the 22 CMIP5 models are grouped into two categories: i) Multi-models, and ii) Best-models. The models which are commonly performed well over the regions are used to interpret the geopotential height future changes. In case of temperature both the multi-models and best-models ensembles underestimate temperature over northern and central regions and overestimate or remain unchanged at southern Peninsula. The RCP8.5 scenario exhibits extensive warming over the whole Arabian Peninsula in near and far future as compared to the RCP4.5. The annual, winter and spring temperature change pattern shows more increment in warming over the southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP) as compared to northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP). However the conditions are quite opposite in case of summer and autumn seasons northern regions attained high increase in temperature than SAP. Best-models projected maximum increase in temperature within the summer season of far future (RCP8.5) that ranges from 4 to 6°C. Annual and seasonal precipitation projections highlighted that rainfall will surplus at SAP, particularly over south-western region and precipitation deficiency associate with north and north-western zone of the Arabian Peninsula. Similarly the geopotential height show a positive change at 200hpa and 500hpa in all seasons which indicates more warming and dryness will enhance over the Peninsula. 
Supervisor : Prof. Md. Nazrul Islam 
Thesis Type : Master Thesis 
Publishing Year : 1440 AH
2019 AD 
Added Date : Wednesday, August 21, 2019 

Researchers

Researcher Name (Arabic)Researcher Name (English)Researcher TypeDr GradeEmail
محمد سلمان خالدKhalid, Mohammed SalmanResearcherMaster 

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